Stock Cycle

Categories: Stocks, Econ

Druids and stock traders have some things in common. No, it's not that both groups spend a lot of times in robes conducting bizarre ritualistic sacrifices (but, hey, who are we to judge what people do in their spare time?). It's that both groups believe in the importance of cycles.

Druids placed great ceremonial meaning on the turning of the seasons. Similarly, traders put stress on the stock cycle, a pattern of increasing prices, followed by a peak, and an eventual decline...before starting all over again.

The technical theory of the stock cycle was developed by Richard Wyckoff, who saw it unfolding in four distinct phases: 1) accumulation, 2) markup, 3) distribution, and 4) markdown.

The cycle perpetuates because of the movement of money from large institutions. Wyckoff believed that, by anticipating the stages in the cycle, a trader could profit from big money moving in and out of stocks...like the hyenas who follow the lion pride around, waiting to pick up some scraps. Or, if you want to think of it more generously, like farmers anticipating the weather so they know the best time of the year to plant, and then harvest, their crops.

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Finance: What is a Business Cycle?3 Views

00:00

Finance allah shmoop What is a business cycle Well here's

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a guy giving his cycle the business Yeah the bike

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moves forward in time but this little white mark on

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the tire while it keeps returning to the same place

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again and again and again So yeah that's the foundation

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of the notion of business as a cycle time continues

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but you know business gets hot then cold then hot

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then cold and yeah you get the idea Well why

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is this the case Well lots factors They mostly revolve

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around the wild pagan dance of greed and fear And

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they get exacerbated when governments actively monkey around with the

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cost of renting money otherwise known as the raising and

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lowering of interest rates And if you're new to this

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whole space if you lower interest rates and make money

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cheap to borrow you heat up the economy or at

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least you encourage it to get hot And if you

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raise the cost of borrowing money well then you're going

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to try to cool it off And the reason he

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might want to do that is if inflation is roaring

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right All right well in the us the business cycle

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Runs roughly every eight years for what is called the

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short cycle of business cycles for reasons only partly known

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to humankind the money cycle revolves around the presidential election

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cycle when historically every couple of terms the population gets

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sick of one process of messing up government and they

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choose to elect a new way to mess up government

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So that's The short cycle happens every seven or eight

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years and you see it in the stock market with

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generally meaningful corrections Along that pattern there's also ate a

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long business cycle that sees major shift about every quarter

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century World wars affected numbers Technology innovation affects the numbers

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and other exogenous factors like pollution and labor replacement by

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robots Yeah yeah it's coming and healthcare or disease changes

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and or big innovations that completely repaint the pavement such

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that the tire slipped and turn and twist trying to

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keep the bicycle upright The key goal Look outfor bollards

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